Abstract

This background report assesses the November 8, 2025, Anambra State governorship election as a barometer of party strength, federal influence, and personality-driven politics. Drawing on fieldwork across all three senatorial districts, key-informant interviews, stakeholder dialogues, media tracking, and review of official documents, the analysis applies CDD’s “Eight I’s” framework—Institutions, Insecurity, Incumbency, Intra- and Inter-party contestation, Identity, Information disorder, Influence of personalities, and Inclusivity.

Findings show mixed institutional readiness. INEC has undertaken early preparations—candidate finalisation, logistics planning, staff training, and completion of CVR—yet persistent weaknesses from CVR and a recent bye-election (overcrowding, equipment shortfalls, and credibility deficits) risk reappearing. Security risks remain elevated in LGAs such as Ihiala, Nnewi South, and Orumba South, complicated by vigilante activity and low public trust. Incumbency advantages at state level, paired with pragmatic federal calculations, shape the competitive field, while opposition fragmentation and weak internal democracy depress programmatic campaigning. Personality politics—especially around Governor Charles Soludo and Peter Obi—continues to outweigh party platforms. Religious identity cues (Catholic–Anglican) and sub-zonal dynamics within the South subtly structure mobilisation. Disinformation—amplified via Facebook, WhatsApp, and radio—erodes confidence in institutions and could suppress turnout. Women, youth, and persons with disabilities remain under-represented and face access barriers.

The report recommends: disciplined logistics and visible transparency by INEC (including real-time IReV performance and proactive communications), coordinated and rights-respecting security deployments, revitalised voter education in Igbo and English through trusted local networks, and cross-sector counter-disinformation protocols. Delivering these measures is essential to safeguard participation, credibility, and peace in one of Nigeria’s most closely watched subnational elections.