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The Ondo State Governorship election slated for 16 November 2024 is the fifth off-cycle election to be conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) since the 2023 general elections. Data from INEC indicates that 2,053,061 registered voters will be eligible to cast their ballots. INEC figures further indicate that out of a total of 89,777 Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) belonging to recently registered voters, prospective voters have collected 55,859 PVCs, representing 62.2%. This level of enthusiasm in the PVC collection is perceived as an indication of the readiness of the electorate to participate in the electoral process.  However, myriads of challenges, which combine to constrain and depress the robust participation of voters in the electoral process remain to be confronted.  At a time when apprehension is rife in the West African Sub-region because of the coup contagion, and the democratic reversals, which have elicited a serious debate on how to safeguard, protect and promote democracy, the conversation around ensuring the integrity of the information ecosystem is as important as ever. As such, tackling information manipulation is now considered by pro-democracy advocates as one of the crucial steps to ensuring the triumph and supremacy of the voices and the votes of the electorate. It is to achieve this goal that a CDD-West Africa Team of assessors recently visited Ondo State for an assessment of the information environment. The objective of the assessment was to interact with and share the perspectives of key stakeholders in the electoral process. Specific focus of the assessment was about tracking the various strands of mis/disinformation and how they impact on the electoral process, particularly the participation of historically marginalized groups, including women, youth and persons with disabilities. One of the key findings of the assessment was the dominant narrative in the state alleging that the election of 16 November is already won and lost, and that there is no need for the electorate to approach the process with so much seriousness. Some stakeholders who provided their perspectives during the assessment were of the view that the lack of serious campaigning by the political actors beyond a few rallies was indicative of the absence of a keenly contested election.   Among the disinformation peddled in the campaign period, there have been narratives targeting INEC and various political party candidates. Identity-driven disinformation relating to the geographical origin of the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) trended a few days after the assessment commenced. Also, a video circulating on WhatsApp claimed the incumbent governor of the state was allegedly involved in a fight with his mistress in London. Based on the responses of interviewed respondents, this apparently false narrative gained traction because of the biases it generated. Respondents who weighed in on the viral disinformation alleged that the absence of the First Lady of the state for a considerable period, made the content quite relatable and believable. This apparently informed the wide shares the content has received and the push back against fact checkers who have made efforts to show that the individual captured in the footage is indeed not the governor of Ondo State.     

The ability of APC to unite its different factions, especially after a contentious primary, might be key to ensuring a strong showing. As with most elections in Nigeria, factors including identity and zoning, insecurity, information disorder and growing impassivity among voters will play a major role in how the elections are conducted. Another major point to note is the relative anonymity of major political gladiators on both sides, besides Aiyedatiwa and Agboola. This is of course in relative comparison to Edo, where former Governor Adams Oshiomhole and outgoing Governor Godwin Obaseki were more associated with the race than the candidates of their different parties. In Ondo, both Aiyedatiwa and Agboola have been front and centre, but more so as the prominent faces of their parties and less so by their individual clout. This bucks the trend of strong individuals overshadowing party structures in previous elections and provides some possible clues for how the two establishment parties might fare when the generation of founding fathers departs the stage. This paper seeks to unpack the question of Ondo’s political leaning and the important factors that will make or mar the election result. It will also proffer nuanced background analysis, especially in reviewing recent political clashes and the different considerations across the different geopolitical zones. Finally, while it does not shy from the overwhelming prediction that our team received from different discussions, it seeks to situate potential reasons in the wider context of Nigeria’s political landscape.

In the lead-up to the Edo State governorship election scheduled for September 21, a comprehensive information ecosystem assessment conducted by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) War Room revealed a range of information manipulation strategies aimed at influencing public perception and undermining the electoral process. These strategies, often targeted at political figures, government institutions, and vulnerable groups, are designed to foster distrust and sway voter behaviour. One notable disinformation narrative falsely claimed that Governor Godwin Obaseki had taken the Oba of Benin to court, which was leveraged to exploit cultural sensitivities and create a voting backlash. Other narratives accused the governor of re-bagging Federal Government rice for distribution as state-provided palliatives, further sowing doubts about his governance. Gendered disinformation also emerged, targeting women in politics, particularly Edo’s First Lady, Betsy Obaseki, who was subjected to misogynistic attacks to undermine her influence.

The governorship election has come and gone, but the most significant is the lessons the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), political parties, civil society organisations, media, and Nigerians must have learned from the process of conducting the election. Following the conclusions of the voting process and counting of votes, INEC declared the candidate of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and the incumbent governor of the state, Governor Obiano defeated the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Tony Nwoye, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Oseloka Obaze who had 98,752 and 70,293votes respectively. The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) together with PREMIUM TIMES deployed trained journalists and citizen observers to observe the elections. The activities of the observers were coordinated from the Election Analysis Centre set up by the partners to provide a situational analysis of the conduct of the governorship election.

The 2023 general election will be a defining moment not just for Nigeria but also for West Africa. The region has suffered democratic decline and experienced coups and counter-coups in the past three years. However, beyond the hopes of the emergence of transformational leadership that will change the country's fate, there are existing challenges that threaten the conduct of free, fair, and credible elections in Nigeria. Nigeria's 2023 election will be the seventh to be conducted in the fourth republic. It will be unique for two reasons. First, it will not have an incumbent running. Second, the country has promulgated the 2022 Electoral Act, bringing new changes to election guidelines and regulations. However, the 2023 election is one that many analysts speculate will be fraught with severe challenges. Nigeria's six geopolitical zones are currently embroiled in different conflicts, ranging from farmer-herder clashes witnessed in all the zones to banditry and terrorist threats in the northwest and north-central and secessionist agitations in the southeast. These conflict situations are likely to deteriorate further with increased political violence that could affect the safety of election materials, personnel and even voters. In addition, the security situation could affect voter turnout – despite ongoing voter registration already surpassing 85 million registered voters - and even the legitimacy of the results.

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The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has slated 16 November 2019 for off-cycle gubernatorial elections in Bayelsa and Kogi States. These will be the first major elections to be conducted by INEC since the 2019 general elections.