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TO: The National Assembly FROM: The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) SUBJECT Protection from Internet Falsehood and Manipulation Bill 2019 (SB 132) The Protection from Internet Falsehood and Manipulation Bill, 2019 (SB 132), passed the second reading of the Senate in November 2019. Leading the debate on the Bill at the plenary session, Sen. Mohammad Sani Musa (APC: Niger) explained that the Bill aims to mitigate the threat of false information spread on the internet by monitoring online spaces. Considering the increasingly important role internet activity plays in determining citizen wellbeing, interventions to control such activity must be wholly justified. After research and review of the Bill, CDD has concluded that the Bill should not pass. IN this memorandum CDD outlines three main arguments against the Bill's passage and suggests three alternative courses of action. Cases against the Protection from Internet Falsehood and Manipulation Bill

The research sheds light on the following dimensions of the crisis in the northwest: It analyses how the bandits mobilise popular support by exploiting political grievances in North-western communities, particularly with pastoralists, even as they fight primarily fight for personal gain. It finds that local vigilante forces, particularly the Hausa self-defence groups known as Yan Sakai, have helped fuel insecurity by engaging in egregious and indiscriminate human rights violations against Fulani and pastoralist communities; directly or indirectly pushing many pastoralists into banditry. Federal security forces have also sought to compensate for insufficient manpower and intelligence by profiling, harassing, or indiscriminately attacking pastoralists with little concern for collateral damage, exacerbating many of the underlying drivers of conflict.

Since Nigeria's return to electoral democracy in 1999, following a long period of coups and military rule, the democratic process of the country has not been without its own challenges, particularly regarding women's engagement in the political process (Hoffmann, Wallace, 2022). The last 24 years have not offered equal place to women and men in both elected and appointed political positions. Women have encountered barriers that differ from those men face. Sometimes, they are subjected to unfair scrutiny and held to higher standards. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former Nigerian Minister of Finance, captures that reality eloquently when she submitted, “There is no right way to be a woman leader”(Gillard, Okonjo-Iweala, 2020). Since 1999, no Nigerian woman has been elected president, vice-president, or governor. Additionally, the number of seats occupied by women Senators, in each legislative session, has never gone above nine out of 109 seats. This low level of representation reflects the challenge that women still face in the country. This paper discusses how Nigerian women have fared in both elected and appointed political positions 24 years after the return to democracy. It investigates the historical representation of women in political positions, as well as the issues women in politics face in career progression. The paper expatiates on issues including constitutional limitations, cultural and religious bias, gendered information disorder, party structure, male alignment, and the roles of women leaders in major parties.

This research brief discusses the African Satellite Digital television project which was officially launched in Nigeria in 2019 by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) highlighting its exportation of propaganda into rural Nigeria. Although government officials in Nigeria have lauded the for its potential to change the fortunes of rural dwellers across the country, there has been no account of beneficiaries' perception of the satellite TV project in Nigeria as well as its implementation across the continent.

The year 2023 in Nigeria was marked by a series of elections. In February, there were presidential and legislative elections, followed by gubernatorial contests in March, supplementary contests in April, and three off-cycle governorship elections in November. These electoral events were influenced by various factors, ranging from identity politics to the challenges faced by electoral and security institutions. In the aftermath of the fiercely contested elections, both local and foreign stakeholders remain concerned about the country’s security and political landscape. The challenges anticipated for the new administration are considerable, and this report aims to shed light on the intricate interplay between insecurity and electoral processes, providing insights for stakeholders to navigate the complex issues at hand. Security challenges are pervasive across the entire country. In the North-Central, conflicts between pastoralists and farmers over resources have been prominent. In the South-South zone, persistent oil-related militancy remains a significant concern. Secessionist movements in the South-East continue to cause challenges to the state, while the North-West and North-East have continued to grapple with militant jihadist groups and the proliferation of communal militias and other non-state armed groups. Finally, the South-West has witnessed increased clashes between the regional community militia and other groups, ranging from pastoralists to other security outfits. Despite former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration (2015 – 2023) having been elected largely on the promise of addressing insecurity, these challenges persist under his successor. In ensuring Nigeria’s peace and stability, this report identifies three emerging post-election challenges that underscore the critical need to address the drivers of political violence, indicative of state-society relations and their impact on elections. First, in response to security and legitimacy concerns in the lead-up to and the immediate aftermath of the 2023 elections, the Nigerian government must prioritise addressing concerns related to marginalisation and identity. These concerns have been prominent factors contributing to electoral violence observed in all four elections this year, posing a substantial risk of further unrest. Second, considering the enduring influence and political power wielded by incumbent leaders, it is imperative for the Nigerian government to adopt a comprehensive strategy to address and mitigate the risks associated with the abuse of power manifested in leaders’ involvement in politics. Finally, the government must address citizens’ concerns that politicians exploit judicial actions to secure office through the courts, which has continued to exacerbate conflict, especially in areas where elections are keenly contested.

For a country with a significant female population, Nigeria has been poor in ensuring gender parity in elected and appointed leadership positions. Since 1979, the country has practiced a presidential form of government, with a devolved form of government across three tiers—federal, state and local levels. Yet, despite the number of elective constituencies available, there has been little to no women elected to these positions. Nigeria has never elected a female president, vice-president or a governor in any of its thirty-six states. Women elected to the national legislature have been a scant percentage in any of the ten constituted sessions of either chamber, with none emerging as president of the senate and a roughly five-month stint for the only woman to emerge speaker of the House of Representatives. This paper overviews the history of political participation in women before reviewing the status of women in previous cabinets. It then highlights factors affecting appointments and challenges for women in post. Nigerian political literature is expanding on the covering the identity-based elements of its politics, but it is yet to properly address the role that cabinet appointments can play in correcting the gender imbalance in political leadership.

Nigerians went to the polls for the third and final set of elections in 2023, with citizens in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi electing state governors. These polls were conducted in the wake of contentious general elections that produced a new president, national legislators, and 28 state governors.

The Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi off-cycle elections are scheduled to take place on November 11, 2023. Off-cycle elections are held outside the general elections schedule due to circumstances such as death, resignation, impeachment, annulment of elections by courts, and many more. The forthcoming off-cycle elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi, which are scheduled to take place in the aftermath of the 2023 Nigerian general elections, hold a pivotal place in the country’s democratic process. These elections provide a unique opportunity for a swift evaluation of the new government’s performance so far and offer a referendum on how citizens in these states respond to the leadership of the recently elected administration. The outcomes of these contests will significantly impact the political fortunes of the parties involved and lay the foundation for the upcoming general elections in 2027. The 2023 Nigerian general elections marked an important milestone in the country’s democratic journey, characterized by technological advancements, increased civil society participation, and identity-based divisions among candidates and parties. These factors influenced the election results and set the stage for the off-cycle governorship elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi.

Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of every democracy and the primary mechanism for exercising the principle of sovereignty of the people. Through such elections, citizens choose their leaders and participate in the governance of their country. By their choices, citizens confer legitimacy and authority on those who govern, making it easier for elected leaders to mobilize public support and cooperation for the implementation of development programmes. Free, fair, and credible elections are therefore a crucial prerequisite for good governance in any democracy.

For the first time in many electoral cycles, Nigerians were optimistic about the prospects of the 2023 general elections being credible. While there are various reasons behind this unusual optimism, the enactment of the Electoral Act 2022 stood out as a key factor. Its enactment increased the credibility ratings of the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) and the electoral process resulting in a record number of new voter registrations ahead of the elections. Arguably one of the most anticipated pieces of legislation in Nigeria's Fourth Republic, the Electoral Act 2022 was expected to enhance INEC's autonomy, both functionally and financially, and amplify the transparency of electoral proceedings. Yet, as the 2023 election cycle unfolded, it became clear that the Act wasn’t living up to these expectations and the broad-based optimism. Contrary to expectations, the Act's implementation did not translate to a higher voter turnout, seamless elections or a reduction in post-election litigation. Given this backdrop of high expectations juxtaposed against increased discontent, this paper delves into the Electoral Act 2022 and its influence on the 2023 elections.

The West Africa region has been impacted by violent conflict, often characterized by insurgencies, terrorism, intercommunal clashes, and criminal activities. Several factors contribute to the violent conflict in the Greater Sahel, including socio-economic challenges, political instability, weak governance, and competition over resources. The region faces numerous development challenges, such as poverty, high unemployment rates, limited access to education and healthcare, and food insecurity. These conditions, coupled with a lack of strong institutions and poor governance, create an environment conducive to conflict and exploitation by various armed groups. Jihadist and extremist groups have gained prominence in the Greater Sahel, aiming to establish Islamic states, implementing strict interpretations of Sharia law, and challenging state authority. Some of the prominent armed groups operating in the region include Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). These groups have conducted attacks on military and civilian targets, committed human rights abuses, and engaged in smuggling, kidnapping for ransom, and other criminal activities. The violent conflicts in West Africa have had devastating consequences for the affected populations. This situation led to mass displacement, loss of lives, human rights violations, and hindered socio-economic development. The conflicts have also exacerbated existing intercommunal tensions, leading to cycles of revenge and further instability.

The decline of Boko Haram attacks in North East Nigeria indicates that the country is gradually drifting towards the post insurgency era. In March 2017, the Nigerian army hosted the Nigerian Army Small Arms Championship in the Sambisa forest (previously a Boko Haram stronghold) to reflect its control of the Sambisa Forest. In the same vein, some communities in Madagali Local Government Area, Adamawa State have started to celebrate victory over Boko Haram and the return to normalcy in their communities with cultural dances and the ’durba' (horse display). Nonetheless, other communities in the North East are less enthusiastic about the projected victory over the insurgents.

The 2023 general election will be a defining moment not just for Nigeria but also for West Africa. The region has suffered democratic decline and experienced coups and counter-coups in the past three years. However, beyond the hopes of the emergence of transformational leadership that will change the country's fate, there are existing challenges that threaten the conduct of free, fair, and credible elections in Nigeria. Nigeria's 2023 election will be the seventh to be conducted in the fourth republic. It will be unique for two reasons. First, it will not have an incumbent running. Second, the country has promulgated the 2022 Electoral Act, bringing new changes to election guidelines and regulations. However, the 2023 election is one that many analysts speculate will be fraught with severe challenges. Nigeria's six geopolitical zones are currently embroiled in different conflicts, ranging from farmer-herder clashes witnessed in all the zones to banditry and terrorist threats in the northwest and north-central and secessionist agitations in the southeast. These conflict situations are likely to deteriorate further with increased political violence that could affect the safety of election materials, personnel and even voters. In addition, the security situation could affect voter turnout – despite ongoing voter registration already surpassing 85 million registered voters - and even the legitimacy of the results.

CDD-EAC reviews the 2023 governorship elections

Increased Violence and Vote Buying Recorded in Governorship Elections

The Sulhu Radio Program forms part of the Centre for Democracy and Development's (CDD) efforts to promote initiatives that resolve unaddressed grievances, support forgiveness, healing, reconciliation, and reintegration at the community level across affected communities in northeast Nigeria and the Lake Chad region.

Previewing Postponed Polls: Nigeria's State Elections holding on 18 March 2023

Nigeria’s next elected president will lead the country into celebrating 63 years as an independent nation on 1 October 2023. In that time, Nigerians have seen attempts at democracy interrupted three times, but democracy has been the system of

Nigeria’s next elected president will lead the country into celebrating 63 years as an independent nation on 1 October 2023. In that time, Nigerians have seen attempts at democracy interrupted three times, but democracy has been the system of

The Election Analysis Centre (EAC) is a response to the groundswell of citizens demands for credible elections. Through the EAC, the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) has regularly convened experts to brainstorm and interrogate key issues in Nigeria’s electoral process. Since 2015, the EAC has observed elections general and off cycle elections, generating a number of valuable reports on key aspects of Nigerian elections. For the 2023 general elections the EAC will keep a close watch on the key processes in the build up to, during and after the elections. For the presidential and national assembly elections on 25 February 2023 and the gubernatorial and State House of Assembly, CDD will deploy over 4,000 trained and accredited observers, data clerks, fact-checkers and social media monitors.