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Between Repression and Liberation: The Changing Face of Civil Society in the Sahel States

Socio-political transformations in the Sahel region of West Africa over the last decade have revitalized the role of civil society in shaping political processes in the region, making it an increasingly pressing and contested issue in the search for democratic consolidation. Civil society emerges as both a battleground and a bridge between power and resistance to it. Yet, two dominant and contradictory narratives have gained prominence about its prospects. On the one hand, there is the narrative of a “shrinking civic space” as presented on democracy scorecards. This narrative frames civil society as the silenced victim of state repression suffocating under authoritarianism. On the other hand,this unfolds the narrative of a “liberatory” awakening defended by neo-pan-Africanist social media discourses. This narrative imagines civil society as a willing partner of state actors, including military transitional governments, working together to reclaim sovereignty in a new fragmented, multi-polar emerging world order. The coexistence of these two narratives is nothing new, but their divergence has now reached the point where representing either one in isolation borders on the absurd. Such representations could be overly simplistic, failing to account for the nuanced, often paradoxical realities of civil society’s engagement with power. It is contended in this paper that the interaction between repression and liberation obscures the dynamic and evolving nature of civil society, which is characterized by inherent tensions and ambiguities.
Dr. Lassane Ouedraogo
Publication

Disinformation: An Unknown Candidate in Nigeria's Elections

The Ondo State Governorship election slated for 16 November 2024 is the fifth off-cycle election to be conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) since the 2023 general elections. Data from INEC indicates that 2,053,061 registered voters will be eligible to cast their ballots. INEC figures further indicate that out of a total of 89,777 Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) belonging to recently registered voters, prospective voters have collected 55,859 PVCs, representing 62.2%. This level of enthusiasm in the PVC collection is perceived as an indication of the readiness of the electorate to participate in the electoral process.  However, myriads of challenges, which combine to constrain and depress the robust participation of voters in the electoral process remain to be confronted.  At a time when apprehension is rife in the West African Sub-region because of the coup contagion, and the democratic reversals, which have elicited a serious debate on how to safeguard, protect and promote democracy, the conversation around ensuring the integrity of the information ecosystem is as important as ever. As such, tackling information manipulation is now considered by pro-democracy advocates as one of the crucial steps to ensuring the triumph and supremacy of the voices and the votes of the electorate. It is to achieve this goal that a CDD-West Africa Team of assessors recently visited Ondo State for an assessment of the information environment. The objective of the assessment was to interact with and share the perspectives of key stakeholders in the electoral process. Specific focus of the assessment was about tracking the various strands of mis/disinformation and how they impact on the electoral process, particularly the participation of historically marginalized groups, including women, youth and persons with disabilities. One of the key findings of the assessment was the dominant narrative in the state alleging that the election of 16 November is already won and lost, and that there is no need for the electorate to approach the process with so much seriousness. Some stakeholders who provided their perspectives during the assessment were of the view that the lack of serious campaigning by the political actors beyond a few rallies was indicative of the absence of a keenly contested election.   Among the disinformation peddled in the campaign period, there have been narratives targeting INEC and various political party candidates. Identity-driven disinformation relating to the geographical origin of the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) trended a few days after the assessment commenced. Also, a video circulating on WhatsApp claimed the incumbent governor of the state was allegedly involved in a fight with his mistress in London. Based on the responses of interviewed respondents, this apparently false narrative gained traction because of the biases it generated. Respondents who weighed in on the viral disinformation alleged that the absence of the First Lady of the state for a considerable period, made the content quite relatable and believable. This apparently informed the wide shares the content has received and the push back against fact checkers who have made efforts to show that the individual captured in the footage is indeed not the governor of Ondo State.     
Armsfree Ajanaku, Aluko Ahmad
Publication

A Tale of Two Deputies – Reviewing the Political Terrain of the 2024 Ondo Governorship Election

The ability of APC to unite its different factions, especially after a contentious primary, might be key to ensuring a strong showing. As with most elections in Nigeria, factors including identity and zoning, insecurity, information disorder and growing impassivity among voters will play a major role in how the elections are conducted. Another major point to note is the relative anonymity of major political gladiators on both sides, besides Aiyedatiwa and Agboola. This is of course in relative comparison to Edo, where former Governor Adams Oshiomhole and outgoing Governor Godwin Obaseki were more associated with the race than the candidates of their different parties. In Ondo, both Aiyedatiwa and Agboola have been front and centre, but more so as the prominent faces of their parties and less so by their individual clout. This bucks the trend of strong individuals overshadowing party structures in previous elections and provides some possible clues for how the two establishment parties might fare when the generation of founding fathers departs the stage. This paper seeks to unpack the question of Ondo’s political leaning and the important factors that will make or mar the election result. It will also proffer nuanced background analysis, especially in reviewing recent political clashes and the different considerations across the different geopolitical zones. Finally, while it does not shy from the overwhelming prediction that our team received from different discussions, it seeks to situate potential reasons in the wider context of Nigeria’s political landscape.
Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, Dengiyefa Angalapu, Gbemisola Adebowale

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