Abstract

From January–June 2025, West Africa recorded 12,964 conflict-related fatalities across 5,907 incidents, with violence overwhelmingly concentrated in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—nearly 96% of all deaths. Nigeria remained the epicentre (5,768 deaths; 44.5%), driven by a multi-front mix of jihadist insurgency in the northeast, banditry in the northwest, and separatist violence in the southeast, alongside a sharp rise in mass abductions (306 incidents). Burkina Faso (3,539 deaths; 27.3%) endured large-scale assaults and recurrent civilian massacres that eroded public trust. Mali(2,157; 16.6%) saw intensifying operations and growing reliance on air/drone strikes (118 deaths this half) amid accountability concerns in the post-MINUSMA security order. Niger (947; 7.3%) faced cross-border incursions and high-impact attacks on civilians and strategic infrastructure, particularly in Tillabéri and Dosso.

Region-wide, armed clashes (7,122 deaths) and targeted attacks (3,680) dominated, while air/drone strikes (1,110)and remote explosives/IEDs (358) added lethality. The period was marked by cross-border mobility of armed actors, the exploitation of ungoverned spaces, and the expanding use of coercive tactics against civilians and soft targets, including religious gatherings.

The evidence points to a sustained asymmetric warfare model and a deepening governance and accountability gap. Absent robust regional coordination, real-time intelligence sharing, civilian-protection–centred operations, and credible accountability mechanisms, the second half of 2025 risks further escalation and spillover, entrenching an already fragile West African security architecture.