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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming West Africa’s political landscape reshaping elections, information integrity, and citizen participation. In recent times, AI has emerged as both a powerful enabler and a potential threat to democracy in the region, serving as a tool for innovation while also fueling instability. As global AI competition intensifies, the need for inclusive and regionally coordinated AI governance has become increasingly urgent. This report calls for strategic partnerships, responsible regulation, and investment in digital literacy to ensure AI becomes a force that strengthens rather than undermines democracy in West Africa.

The February 2025 West Africa Security Tracker documents a persistently volatile security landscape across the region, with 845 incidents leading to 1,678 fatalities, a 27.8% decrease from January. Despite this decline, the threat posed by insurgencies, communal violence, and criminal networks remains deeply entrenched.

West Africa Security Tracker – January 2025 | Stay informed with the latest security trends across West Africa. This in-depth report analyzes insurgency, terrorism, and intercommunal conflicts in Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and beyond. Get key insights, data-driven analysis, and policy recommendations for tackling regional security threats. #WestAfrica #SecurityAnalysis #ConflictTrends

The year 2023 in Nigeria was marked by a series of elections. In February, there were presidential and legislative elections, followed by gubernatorial contests in March, supplementary contests in April, and three off-cycle governorship elections in November. These electoral events were influenced by various factors, ranging from identity politics to the challenges faced by electoral and security institutions. In the aftermath of the fiercely contested elections, both local and foreign stakeholders remain concerned about the country’s security and political landscape. The challenges anticipated for the new administration are considerable, and this report aims to shed light on the intricate interplay between insecurity and electoral processes, providing insights for stakeholders to navigate the complex issues at hand. Security challenges are pervasive across the entire country. In the North-Central, conflicts between pastoralists and farmers over resources have been prominent. In the South-South zone, persistent oil-related militancy remains a significant concern. Secessionist movements in the South-East continue to cause challenges to the state, while the North-West and North-East have continued to grapple with militant jihadist groups and the proliferation of communal militias and other non-state armed groups. Finally, the South-West has witnessed increased clashes between the regional community militia and other groups, ranging from pastoralists to other security outfits. Despite former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration (2015 – 2023) having been elected largely on the promise of addressing insecurity, these challenges persist under his successor. In ensuring Nigeria’s peace and stability, this report identifies three emerging post-election challenges that underscore the critical need to address the drivers of political violence, indicative of state-society relations and their impact on elections. First, in response to security and legitimacy concerns in the lead-up to and the immediate aftermath of the 2023 elections, the Nigerian government must prioritise addressing concerns related to marginalisation and identity. These concerns have been prominent factors contributing to electoral violence observed in all four elections this year, posing a substantial risk of further unrest. Second, considering the enduring influence and political power wielded by incumbent leaders, it is imperative for the Nigerian government to adopt a comprehensive strategy to address and mitigate the risks associated with the abuse of power manifested in leaders’ involvement in politics. Finally, the government must address citizens’ concerns that politicians exploit judicial actions to secure office through the courts, which has continued to exacerbate conflict, especially in areas where elections are keenly contested.

The 100 days report's cards presents a short term assessment of the performance of President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), on the delivery of campaign promises made in the run-up to the 2015 general elections.

For a country with a significant female population, Nigeria has been poor in ensuring gender parity in elected and appointed leadership positions. Since 1979, the country has practiced a presidential form of government, with a devolved form of government across three tiers—federal, state and local levels. Yet, despite the number of elective constituencies available, there has been little to no women elected to these positions. Nigeria has never elected a female president, vice-president or a governor in any of its thirty-six states. Women elected to the national legislature have been a scant percentage in any of the ten constituted sessions of either chamber, with none emerging as president of the senate and a roughly five-month stint for the only woman to emerge speaker of the House of Representatives. This paper overviews the history of political participation in women before reviewing the status of women in previous cabinets. It then highlights factors affecting appointments and challenges for women in post. Nigerian political literature is expanding on the covering the identity-based elements of its politics, but it is yet to properly address the role that cabinet appointments can play in correcting the gender imbalance in political leadership.

Nigerians went to the polls for the third and final set of elections in 2023, with citizens in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi electing state governors. These polls were conducted in the wake of contentious general elections that produced a new president, national legislators, and 28 state governors.

This report provides a situational analysis of the aftermath of Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya's 2021 coup that ousted President Alpha Conde. The report explores the transition period, highlighting both promising developments and challenges. It discusses the initiation of an inclusive dialogue, institutional reforms, anti-corruption efforts, and development projects.

Incumbent President Julius Maada of Sierra Leone Bio won the June 2023 presidential election with 56.2%, continuing a trend since 2002 where incumbents secure first-round wins. This margin just exceeded the 55% threshold for outright victory, substantially beating his main rival, Samura Kamara of the APC, by 15%. In parallel parliamentary and local council elections, the SLPP won 81 of 135 seats and controlled 12 of 22 districts. The APC contested these results, backed by international observers questioning credibility. The APC chose not to legally challenge but boycotted national and sub-national legislatures, demanding new elections after key resignations, including from the ECSL. Despite unlikely outcomes, this undermines Sierra Leone's democratic credibility. Across West Africa, military coups ousted elected leaders, and Senegal limited opposition. The 2023 Nigerian elections remain contested. Uncertainties about the June 27 results persist due to no legal challenges. The APC's non-participation hampers accountability, deepening ethno-regional divisions and eroding institutional independence perception, endangering legitimacy. Sierra Leone's peaceful power transfers since 2002 offer hope. Yet, a shrinking civic space challenges this. Sierra Leone's 2023 Freedom in the World index fell, reflecting reduced room for protest and criticism in 5 years.

Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of every democracy and the primary mechanism for exercising the principle of sovereignty of the people. Through such elections, citizens choose their leaders and participate in the governance of their country. By their choices, citizens confer legitimacy and authority on those who govern, making it easier for elected leaders to mobilize public support and cooperation for the implementation of development programmes. Free, fair, and credible elections are therefore a crucial prerequisite for good governance in any democracy.

Nigeria's experience of corruption is unarguably troubling and continues to be a blight on the country's record toward economic, social and political progress.

For the first time in many electoral cycles, Nigerians were optimistic about the prospects of the 2023 general elections being credible. While there are various reasons behind this unusual optimism, the enactment of the Electoral Act 2022 stood out as a key factor. Its enactment increased the credibility ratings of the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) and the electoral process resulting in a record number of new voter registrations ahead of the elections. Arguably one of the most anticipated pieces of legislation in Nigeria's Fourth Republic, the Electoral Act 2022 was expected to enhance INEC's autonomy, both functionally and financially, and amplify the transparency of electoral proceedings. Yet, as the 2023 election cycle unfolded, it became clear that the Act wasn’t living up to these expectations and the broad-based optimism. Contrary to expectations, the Act's implementation did not translate to a higher voter turnout, seamless elections or a reduction in post-election litigation. Given this backdrop of high expectations juxtaposed against increased discontent, this paper delves into the Electoral Act 2022 and its influence on the 2023 elections.

This report provides a systematic assessment of the performance of PMB and APC using 222 campaign promises made during the 2015 general elections as the benchmark. According to the findings of our assessment, the performance of the incumbent administration improved during their second year in government.

The West Africa region has been impacted by violent conflict, often characterized by insurgencies, terrorism, intercommunal clashes, and criminal activities. Several factors contribute to the violent conflict in the Greater Sahel, including socio-economic challenges, political instability, weak governance, and competition over resources. The region faces numerous development challenges, such as poverty, high unemployment rates, limited access to education and healthcare, and food insecurity. These conditions, coupled with a lack of strong institutions and poor governance, create an environment conducive to conflict and exploitation by various armed groups. Jihadist and extremist groups have gained prominence in the Greater Sahel, aiming to establish Islamic states, implementing strict interpretations of Sharia law, and challenging state authority. Some of the prominent armed groups operating in the region include Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). These groups have conducted attacks on military and civilian targets, committed human rights abuses, and engaged in smuggling, kidnapping for ransom, and other criminal activities. The violent conflicts in West Africa have had devastating consequences for the affected populations. This situation led to mass displacement, loss of lives, human rights violations, and hindered socio-economic development. The conflicts have also exacerbated existing intercommunal tensions, leading to cycles of revenge and further instability.

Mohammed Bazoum, the staunchly pro-Western president of Niger, fell victim to the latest coup d'état in West Africa. In the early morning of July 26, reports on social media from Niamey, the country's capital, hinted at a mutiny, but many inhabitants reassured others that there was no cause for concern. However, by midday, the rumors were confirmed, and President Bazoum found himself detained by his presidential guard, with General Omar Tchiani implicated as the instigator. General Tchiani has since July 28 assumed the leadership of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP in French), the new Niger military government.

The governorship election has come and gone, but the most significant is the lessons the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), political parties, civil society organisations, media, and Nigerians must have learned from the process of conducting the election. Following the conclusions of the voting process and counting of votes, INEC declared the candidate of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and the incumbent governor of the state, Governor Obiano defeated the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Tony Nwoye, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Oseloka Obaze who had 98,752 and 70,293votes respectively. The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) together with PREMIUM TIMES deployed trained journalists and citizen observers to observe the elections. The activities of the observers were coordinated from the Election Analysis Centre set up by the partners to provide a situational analysis of the conduct of the governorship election.

The decline of Boko Haram attacks in North East Nigeria indicates that the country is gradually drifting towards the post insurgency era. In March 2017, the Nigerian army hosted the Nigerian Army Small Arms Championship in the Sambisa forest (previously a Boko Haram stronghold) to reflect its control of the Sambisa Forest. In the same vein, some communities in Madagali Local Government Area, Adamawa State have started to celebrate victory over Boko Haram and the return to normalcy in their communities with cultural dances and the ’durba' (horse display). Nonetheless, other communities in the North East are less enthusiastic about the projected victory over the insurgents.

West Africa experiences a significant number of incidences of political violence each month. Each country across the region has their own distinct challenges which are reflected in the trends of incidences and fatalities. As a region, it is important to monitor these events to better understand these occurrences, their causes, the effects they have on their communities, countries, and regions, and to create predictions regarding possible future developments. The following report analyzes six months of the ACLED data and provides an overview of regional trends supported by individual country analyses to provide context for the trends observed. While many of the incidences tracked in the database stem from political motivations, not all incidences analyzed in this report are strictly political. For example, banditry may be an economic decision instead of a political one. Nonetheless, incidences of banditry have a political effect on the community in which they occur, For the purposes of remaining consistent with the ACLED database, this report refers to all incidences captured within the database and used for this report as being political in nature.

The Buharimeter is an independent monitoring tool that enables Nigerians, scholars and political analysts around the globe to evaluate the implementation of the campaign promises of President Muhammad Buhari and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), made in the prelude to the 2015 general elections.

The 2023 general election will be a defining moment not just for Nigeria but also for West Africa. The region has suffered democratic decline and experienced coups and counter-coups in the past three years. However, beyond the hopes of the emergence of transformational leadership that will change the country's fate, there are existing challenges that threaten the conduct of free, fair, and credible elections in Nigeria. Nigeria's 2023 election will be the seventh to be conducted in the fourth republic. It will be unique for two reasons. First, it will not have an incumbent running. Second, the country has promulgated the 2022 Electoral Act, bringing new changes to election guidelines and regulations. However, the 2023 election is one that many analysts speculate will be fraught with severe challenges. Nigeria's six geopolitical zones are currently embroiled in different conflicts, ranging from farmer-herder clashes witnessed in all the zones to banditry and terrorist threats in the northwest and north-central and secessionist agitations in the southeast. These conflict situations are likely to deteriorate further with increased political violence that could affect the safety of election materials, personnel and even voters. In addition, the security situation could affect voter turnout – despite ongoing voter registration already surpassing 85 million registered voters - and even the legitimacy of the results.