Abstract

This background paper examines the political, institutional and electoral dynamics shaping the 2026 Osun State Governorship Election, framed as a contest between continuity under incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party and change represented by Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Drawing on desk research, extensive media monitoring and key informant interviews, the report situates the election within Osun’s electoral history and assesses the factors likely to shape voter preferences across the state’s three senatorial districts.

The paper examines political incumbency, candidate identity, governance performance, intra- and inter-party realignments, influential political personalities, religious and traditional institutions, campaign narratives and voter mobilisation. It also highlights concerns around declining issue-based campaigning, political violence, vote trading, inclusion, electoral technology and public confidence in democratic institutions.

As the final governorship election to be conducted by INEC before Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, the Osun poll represents an important test of electoral preparedness, institutional neutrality and public trust. The report therefore calls for professional election administration, effective security, functional electoral technology, greater inclusion, sustained voter mobilisation and firm commitments by political actors to a peaceful and credible election.