GENERAL INTRODUCTION

Between 2020 and 2026, eight African nations —Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Chad, Sudan, Niger, Gabon, Guinea Bissau, and Madagascar— experienced a startling resurgence unconstitutional power grab, resulting in eleven successful interventions. This surge in military takeovers has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the region, marking a significant socio-political transformation that is likely to shape its trajectory for many years to come. In the case of the Sahel region, this series of coups unfolds against the backdrop of a decade-long ascent of non-state armed groups affiliated with ISIS and Al-Qaeda, further complicating the region’s security landscape. These coup d’états not only signify a momentous shift in the region’s political dynamics but also give rise to consequential political realignments, catalyzed by concurrent geopolitical, economic, and security crises.

In the wake of the recent wave of coups across Africa, the post-coup landscape has evolved along divergent paths. For instance, Sudan remains trapped in a devastating civil war, pitting rival factions of its own military against each other in a battle for control. Elsewhere, Brice Oligui Nguema in Gabon and Mahamat Idriss Déby in Chad, and Mamadi Doumbouya in Guinea have each moved to consolidate their power through formal elections, thereby giving a veneer of constitutional legitimacy to their respective military takeovers.

Meanwhile, in the Sahel, General Assimi Goïta (Mali), Captain Ibrahim Traoré (Burkina Faso), and General Abdourahamane Tchiani (Niger) have adopted a markedly different strategy. Rather than seeking rapid electoral validation, they have turned inward and toward each other, launching the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as a political confederation aimed at mutualizing efforts against terrorism and promoting a new model of socio-economic development. Their collective withdrawal from ECOWAS, following its punitive sanctions and veiled threats of military intervention, marks a profound rupture in regional diplomacy. At the same time, they have actively diversified their international partnerships and recalibrated their foreign policy away from traditional Western allies toward new geopolitical alignments. The region’s growing significance to Western interests has led to heightened media coverage of it that often suggests support for the military regime means giving up on democracy and good governance all together or failing citizens in their quest for a better life.

This report provides a comparative, multidimensional assessment of post-coup security, resource governance, and development trajectories in the Sahel. It examines how military-led governance affects resource allocation, civil liberties, and cross-border mobility, while analyzing the legitimacy strategies deployed by AES governments, from sovereignty claims to alternative partnership narratives. Regional trust networks, sub-regional corridors, and historical institutional legacies are treated as critical lenses for understanding both state behavior and lived realities.

The study’s methodology combines qualitative, comparative case analysis with critical political economy and discourse-oriented frameworks. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger serve as primary cases, with Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Benin Republic, and Côte d’Ivoire providing relational and analytical comparison. Data sources include conflict and displacement datasets, governance and resource reports, public opinion surveys, media narratives, and scholarly literature. Analytical frameworks integrate security–lived experience, resource justice, security–development trade-offs, legitimacy narratives, and regional political economy, enabling the study to connect measurable trends with perceptions and discursive realities. This approach ensures both rigor and relevance for policymakers, civil society, and regional stakeholders seeking evidence-based insights.

By situating AES developments within broader regional dynamics, this report moves beyond single-metric analysis to illuminate measurable trends, societal impacts, and cross-border interdependencies. It provides actionable intelligence for addressing insecurity, governance challenges, and development dilemmas, highlighting the delicate balances of cooperation, suspicion, and strategic alignment that is redefine contemporary West Africa.