Abstract

As Côte d’Ivoire prepares for its October 2025 presidential elections, this briefing paper, authored by Dr. Lassane Ouédraogo, explores the deep-rooted political tensions, exclusionary tactics, and shifting diplomatic landscapes shaping the country’s fragile democracy. Drawing from field interviews, media monitoring, and historical analysis, the paper traces Côte d’Ivoire’s legacy of cyclical political crises—from the divisive politics of ivoirité to the violent post-electoral crisis of 2010–2011—and examines how old political elites continue to dominate the electoral space. With key opposition figures barred from contesting and President Alassane Ouattara pursuing a controversial fourth term, the risk of renewed instability looms large. The paper also unpacks the implications of Côte d’Ivoire’s deteriorating relations with its Sahelian neighbors—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—against the backdrop of shifting regional alliances and rising geopolitical tensions. At this critical juncture, the study calls for urgent democratic renewal, inclusive governance, and strategic diplomacy to avoid another descent into crisis.