CDD-West Africa Expresses Concern Over Democratic Regression and Escalating Hardship Midway Through Tinubu’s Presidency
Press Statement
May 29, 2025
CDD-West Africa Expresses Concern Over Democratic Regression and Escalating Hardship Midway Through Tinubu’s Presidency.
(Abuja, Nigeria) May 29 holds great political significance in Nigeria’s democratic calendar. It marks Inauguration Day, a moment traditionally reserved for reflection on leadership transitions and the direction of national governance. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was sworn into office two years ago with promises of renewed hope and bold reforms. Today, as he reaches the midpoint of his constitutionally mandated four-year term, the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD West-Africa) takes this occasion to critically assess the performance of his administration across core sectors of national life.
While the administration has undertaken some notable policy shifts, including macroeconomic adjustments and regional diplomatic engagements, persistent systemic dysfunctions continue to erode democratic consolidation and stall socio-economic advancement. Despite the rhetoric of reform, many indicators, ranging from security and economic stability to press freedom and governance accountability, reveal that public welfare and democratic resilience remain dangerously below expectations.
Security
Against the backdrop of unmet expectations, one of the most pressing concerns remains the country’s deteriorating security landscape. Nigeria’s security challenges remain alarming, casting a long shadow over the two years of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. Despite campaign promises and inaugural commitments to “restore hope” by tackling insecurity head-on, violence has persisted at crisis levels. Nigeria currently ranks sixth on the 2025 Global Terrorism Index, with a score of 7.658, up from eighth place in 2023 and 2024. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), 2023 saw approximately 4,713 conflict-related incidents and 8,772 deaths across the country. Rather than abating, the situation has worsened: preliminary data for 2024 reveals at least 5,771 incidents and 9,739 fatalities. A report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that Nigerians paid an estimated ₦2.3 trillion in ransom over 12 months. This figure was captured in the 2024 Crime Experience and Security Perception Survey (CESPS). From insurgency in the North-East, to rampant banditry in the North-West, and violent communal clashes in the Middle Belt and Southern Nigeria, Nigerians continue to live under siege, with no meaningful improvement in the state’s ability to protect lives and property. The displacement of thousands of Nigerians due to violent conflict has upended livelihoods, decimated local economies, and weakened consumer spending. Small businesses in conflict-prone areas face routine extortion, destruction of property, and reduced patronage, all of which cumulatively depress productivity. Two years into his tenure, the Tinubu administration’s security architecture has failed to inspire confidence or produce tangible results, raising serious concerns about the coherence, strategy, and political will driving national security policy.
Economic Policies
Closely linked to the country’s insecurity crisis is the deepening economic hardship faced by millions of Nigerians under President Tinubu’s administration. When he assumed office in May 2023, headline inflation stood at 22.4%. Within months, it surged dramatically, reaching 26.7% by September 2023 and climbing further to 34.8% by the end of 2024, marking the highest rate in nearly two decades. These inflationary spikes were not incidental; they were the direct consequences of aggressive fiscal and monetary reforms initiated without adequate cushioning for the most vulnerable. The abrupt removal of fuel subsidies, announced on Inauguration Day with the now infamous declaration that “fuel subsidy is gone”, combined with the floating of the Naira, set off a wave of economic shock. The decision, devoid of any safety nets or phased implementation, triggered sharp increases in fuel prices and exacerbated transport and production costs nationwide. Electricity tariffs have also seen steep hikes, with April 2024 witnessing a 3.4-fold increase for Band A consumers. These reforms, touted as necessary for long-term fiscal stability, have in the short term deepened poverty, eroded household purchasing power, and diminished the capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises to survive. In fact, they have lack human face.
Despite assurances of economic revival, the promised gains of these policies remain largely intangible. GDP growth projections linger around a modest 3.0% in 2025, far below what is needed to match population growth or reverse worsening living conditions. While inflation eats away at income, current wage levels remain grossly inadequate in the face of escalating economic hardship, leaving many workers unable to meet basic living costs. The eventual implementation of the much-publicised ₦70,000 minimum wage, approved in July 2024, only came after sustained pressure and nationwide protests by Labour. Meanwhile, the price of staple goods, transport, housing, and healthcare continues to climb, pushing more Nigerians below the poverty line. For many, day-to-day survival has become a struggle in the face of rising costs and stagnant incomes. The World Bank reports that a significant portion of Nigeria's population lives in poverty. Recent estimates indicate that approximately 47% of Nigerians live below the international poverty line of $2.15 per day. This translates to about 104 million people, making Nigeria the country with the second-largest number of poor people in the world, after India. The poverty rate has been increasing, with some reports suggesting that it could reach 56% by 2027.
Nigeria’s Foreign Policy
While domestic challenges persist, the Tinubu administration has also faced significant headwinds on the regional front. Tinubu entered office with an explicit goal to reassert Nigeria’s regional leadership. He won the election as ECOWAS Chair (again in mid-2024) and has urged member states to build a joint security force and defend democracy. However, events in the Sahel have complicated this vision. Since mid-2023, military coups in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have expelled those countries from ECOWAS, and in January 2024 they formed a breakaway “Alliance of Sahel States” (AES). Nigeria initially backed heavy sanctions and even threatened military intervention in Niger, but ultimately has had to accept a phased exit for those juntas. The outcome is that West Africa is less cohesive, and Nigeria’s influence is challenged. Notwithstanding these setbacks, Nigeria continues to engage diplomatically and is pushing ECOWAS reforms. But the net-effect so far is that Nigeria must now navigate a more fragmented region, and its ability to lead has been tested by these crises.
Democratic Culture and Institutions
In the last two years, there have been deepening governance concerns and declining public confidence in democratic institutions to the extent that it is now troubling the political health of Nigeria. By most global benchmarks, the country remains a “partly free” democracy, with a Freedom House score of 44/100. Elections continue to be plagued by irregularities, voter suppression, and legitimacy deficits, while key electoral and constitutional reforms remain stalled. CDD-West Africa observes that Nigeria’s electoral integrity has continued to decline under President Tinubu, with serious irregularities in recent off-cycle governorship elections in some states. The surge in Inducement of voters, especially in the form of vote-buying and vote-selling, featured during the 2023 and 2024 off-cycle elections. CDD-West Africa observed where INEC ad-hoc staff allegedly received money from party agents in PU 7, Ehime-Mbano LGA, and Kogi State, where the LGA Chairman of Igalamela-Odudu was arrested with wads of cash and bullets on his person. Ondo and Edo also had a surge of vote buying and trading. These incidents, combined with abuses of incumbency and lingering logistical lapses, severely undermine the credibility of election outcomes and erode public trust in the democratic process.
Beyond the electoral space, other arms of government have shown troubling signs of regression. Nigeria’s political party system also reflects signs of instability and opportunism, as seen in the growing trend of mass defections to the ruling party. CDD West-Africa observes that the culture of mass defections has become routine and unchecked, undermining stability and trust. Since July 2024, dozens of legislators have switched parties, almost entirely to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). For instance, by May 2025, Nigeria’s House of Representatives formally recorded 24 defections, 21 of which were into the APC. Dozens more state assembly members have likewise jumped ship in recent years. These shifts typically leave seats intact. The net-effect is that voters’ choices are subverted, representatives elected under one banner suddenly advance another’s agenda. This phenomenon corrodes faith in party politics and democratic mandates. We note increasing calls, including by lawmakers themselves, to amend the constitution so that defectors must resign first, but so far, no meaningful reform has emerged. The de facto rule has become: switch allegiance at will with no electoral accountability. Such a system breeds cynicism and patronage, not stable governance.
Basic Rights
This erosion of accountability was on full display during the August 2024 #EndBadGovernance protests, when peaceful demonstrators mobilising against economic hardship were met with disproportionate force. Amnesty International documented at least 24 protesters killed and over 1,200 arbitrarily detained, clear evidence that the government prioritises repression over engagement. Nigeria’s civic space continues to shrink, most notably in the area of press freedom. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) recently flagged Nigeria as regressing in its World Press Freedom Index: the country fell from 112th place in 2024 to 122nd in 2025 (out of 180). RSF attributes this decline to growing media control and intimidation. Over the past year, journalists have been harassed, attacked, and silenced with impunity. In August 2024 alone, approximately 30 reporters were assaulted, tear-gassed, or arbitrarily detained while covering economic protests. Investigative journalists exposing corruption, such as members of the Foundation for Investigative Journalism, have faced direct threats, arrests, and targeted intimidation. Nigeria now ranks among the most dangerous countries for journalists in West Africa. Crimes against media professionals frequently go unpunished, even in cases where perpetrators are identified or apprehended. The Index, which assesses political, legislative, economic, social, and security indicators, highlighted significant government interference in the Nigerian media space, particularly heightened during electoral periods. In sum, the environment for independent journalism is “difficult” at best. The press cannot fulfil its democratic role of informing the public and holding power to account if practitioners must operate under constant fear of violence, censorship, and coercion.
Gender
In the current repressive climate, women remain systematically marginalised in political leadership and decision-making spaces. Despite the National Gender Policy's commitment to 35% affirmative action, only three women currently serve in the 109-member Senate, just 3.7% representation. In particular, efforts to push for women's representation and empowerment via five bills were rejected. This failure to institutionalise gender equity not only contravenes Nigeria’s legal obligations but also undermines the legitimacy, inclusiveness, and vibrancy of its democratic process.
Corruption
Compounding democratic deficit of the Tinubu administration is the erosion of transparency and the persistence of high-level corruption. Our civil society partners have highlighted chronic budgetary opacity. For example, analysts at BudgIT recently exposed that Nigeria’s 2024/25 budget was “padded” with over ₦6.9 trillion (about 12.6% of the approved budget) of constituency projects secretly inserted by the National Assembly. In 2025, legislators’ “constituency” allocations rose to ₦344.85 billion from ₦197.93 billion the year before, far outpacing social welfare spending; such actions fuel corruption and erode confidence. Transparency International’s latest Corruption Perceptions Index gives Nigeria only 26 points out of 100, making it roughly the 140th least-corrupt nation out of 180 countries. For context, before Tinubu took office, Nigeria scored 24/100 in 2022 (rank ~150) and 25/100 in 2023, so the country remains mired near the bottom of global rankings. These numbers emphasise that despite anti-corruption rhetoric, the perceived level of graft remains high.
The consequences of weak accountability mechanisms are perhaps most visible in the state of public service delivery.
Key Sectors: Education and Health
Education and health outcomes are dismal. According to recent UNICEF data, over 10 million Nigerian children aged 5–14 are out of school, about one in five out-of-school children worldwide, a figure that continues to rise. While multiple factors contribute (poverty, insecurity, distance, sociocultural barriers), chronic underfunding is key. The 2025 federal budget allocated only 7% to education, the same low share as 2024, far below the 26% UNESCO benchmark for education spending. Many states also spend well under recommended levels. The result is overcrowded classrooms, dilapidated facilities, and a lack of teachers, especially in the North, where girls are disproportionately left behind. Until the government massively raises education investment and removes barriers to access, tens of millions of young Nigerians will be denied basic schooling, jeopardising the country’s future human capital. Another sector notably under stress is the healthcare and social infrastructure. Nigeria is listed by the World Health Organisation (WHO) among the 37 countries with critical health workforce shortages. In practice, we now have only ~55,000 licensed doctors for over 200 million people – about 0.36 doctors per 1,000 population, vastly below WHO norms. This shortfall is worsened by an extraordinary brain drain. 16,000 doctors left the country in the last five years, and about 17,000 have been transferred. Between 2008 and 2021, more than 36,000 Nigerian doctors migrated to the United Kingdom, with outflows rising sharply in recent years. Similarly, over 60,000 Nigerian nurses left for the UK from 2002–2021. These trends reflect poor pay, lack of equipment and career opportunities at home. Yet despite this crisis, health spending remains very low, generally under 5–6% of the budget, far below the Abuja Declaration’s target of 15%. Hospitals are understaffed and underfunded, causing ordinary Nigerians to pay out-of-pocket or go without care. Although we take note that the new government has acknowledged this as a “healthcare crisis” and even approved a policy to manage health worker migration, real improvements will only come if the state commits significantly more resources to clinics, training and worker welfare.
Recommendation
Taken together, the above concerns point to a critical juncture in Nigeria’s democratic and developmental path. Two years on, Nigerians face serious shortcomings across all these areas. The Tinubu administration has pursued fiscal and monetary reforms such as subsidy removal and foreign currency exchange unification, and has spoken of strengthening institutions. But on the ground, most citizens still endure worsening insecurity, high inflation, spotty service delivery, and an overall sense that governance is not working for the people. We therefore urge the government to urgently recalibrate its focus towards the people’s needs in every sector. Policies must be evaluated by their impact on Nigerians’ daily lives: security forces should be reformed to truly protect communities; economic policies should include safety nets so vulnerable families are not crushed by price shocks; the rule of law must be upheld even against powerful figures; and budgetary priorities (in such service delivery areas such as education, health, social protection) must match the government’s stated goals of inclusivity and development. Moreover, politicians should honour voters’ mandates and not treat elections as a license for opportunism. Only by restoring trust, ensuring transparency, and placing citizen welfare at the centre can Nigeria’s democracy and development truly advance. In the second half of Tinubu’s term, CDD West-Africa emphasises: the people must come first.